Revenue Forecast: First Look

Oregon economists are predicting a slight drop in state tax revenues. Interim State economist Mark McMullen said this morning that despite recent turmoil on Wall Street, he's projecting state income tax collections to drop just $200 million over the coming biennium. That is, tax revenue is expected to be $200 million less than it was expected to be at the close of the legislative session in June. That's a relatively small drop, and so far it's well within the "cushion" that lawmakers gave themselves when crafting the current two-year spending plan. "Things aren't unraveling yet" in Oregon, says McMullen. "So for now, we're holding the line. But if the nationwide economy goes back into recession, it will drag Oregon down with it."