Potiowsky Stepping Down As State Economist

State economist Tom Potiowsky, known for his colorful presentations of gloomy economic news, says he's issued his final revenue forecast. Potiowsky tells me he's accepted an offer to chair the Economics Department at Portland State University, and to head up its new Institute for Applied Economic Research. Potiowsky has a long history with PSU, having previously taught there. In fact, Potiowsky tells me he was technically "on leave" from the university during this, his second stint as Oregon's chief economist.

As state economist, Potiowsky was responsible for issuing a quarterly forecast of Oregon revenues--a closely watched report that lawmakers base their budget on. If Potiowsky's predictions were too optimistic, it meant mid-budget cutbacks to state programs. If his predictions were too conservative, it meant the state would have to refund extra tax revenues in the form of a kicker check.

Potiowsky says his last day as state economist will technically come in mid-September, but he's using up accumulated vacation time, meaning his last day on the job will come in early August. That means the next revenue forecast, due August 26, will be issued by someone else. It's up to Governor John Kitzhaber to appoint Potiowsky's replacement.

Here's a sampling of Potiowsky's comments to lawmakers during revenue forecasts over the past few years:


February 20, 2009:  “I have to say that you are rather a courageous group.  Usually people these days are afraid to have me come talk to them.”

February 8, 2010:   “It’s really making the engine run fast, and you’re taking those cables off, and so it doesn’t get as much juice as it did before. But the engine’s still going to run. It’s just going to run a little less RPM’s before it starts to kick back in.”

February 15, 2011:  "I've heard rumors that possibly our office doesn't have very good economic skills. And so I wanted to squelch that rumor to say that indeed, we are economists…so I put up a graph that no one can understand."